A Particle Filtering Approach for On-Line Failure Prognosis in a Planetary Carrier Plate

This paper introduces an on-line particle-filtering-based framework for failure prognosis in nonlinear, non-Gaussian systems. This framework uses a nonlinear state-space model of the plant (with unknown time-varying parameters) and a particle filtering (PF) algorithm to estimate the probability density function (pdf) of the state in real-time. The state pdf estimate is then used to predict the evolution in time of the fault indicator, obtaining as a result the pdf of the remaining useful life (RUL) for the faulty subsystem. This approach provides information about the precision and accuracy of long-term predictions, RUL expectations, and 95% confidence intervals for the condition under study. Data from a seeded fault test for a UH-60 planetary carrier plate are used to validate the proposed methodology.